The workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the decline in the oil price in 2014. This is explained by a complex set of factors. It had implications on forecasting the price of oil and on oil price volatility and uncertainty, which increased.
Following the International Conference on “The Recent Evolutions of Oil and Commodity Prices” organized by FEEM on 4-5 June, 2015 Re3 interviews energy experts Leo Drollas, Vincent Kaminski, Lutz Kilian, Charles F. Mason, Apostolos Serletis and Adonis Yatchew on the drop in oil prices and their research on this issue.
We discuss the concepts of macroeconomic uncertainty, oil price uncertainty and oil price shocks. Given the relevance of oil and macroeconomic uncertainty, we illustrate how economic uncertainty can be defined and measured. We describe our proposed measure of oil price uncertainty and we illustrate the contribution of its underlying components.
Following the International Conference on “Oil Price Forecasts and Trends” organized by FEEM on May 23-24, 2013, Re3 interviews energy experts Bahattin Buyuksahin, Leo Drollas, John Elder, Wincenty Kaminski, Charles F. Mason and James Smith on the key issues of oil price forecasts and international energy markets.
In the past decade, financial institutions have assumed an ever greater role in energy derivatives (or "paper") markets. Recent studies provide evidence of this "financialization". This article summarizes their findings, identifies questions that remain unanswered, and discusses what data or theoretical breakthroughs could shed light on these issues.
The sharp swings in oil prices and the marked increase in volatility during the latest 2008-2009 price cycle and more recently in 2011 raise concerns about the role of speculators in the oil market. Observers in the oil industry and in academic institutions have opposing views on the key drivers of oil prices.
For some years now, the price of oil has been out of control. None of the industry players are able to set the price level or influence its movement. Some consumers still believe that the oil price is determined within the context of the power balance between producers and consumers, but since the end of 1998, no one has been able to forecast the oil price correctly.
In this study real oil price dynamics have been assessed over a few important episodes since the 1990s. The evidence provides support to the demand side view: in this respect, macroeconomic shocks would appear to be the major upward driver of the real oil price over the whole period investigated.
This article contributes to the literature in two directions. First, it investigates the behaviour of futures prices returns for different energy and agricultural commodities, over the period 1986-2010. Second, it measures the market vulnerability to financial speculation for energy commodities over the period 1992-2010.
On the occasion of the international workshop on “Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price”, leading world experts were interviewed on the financial speculation in the oil market and its effects on the price of oil. We here report the interview held with Bahattin Buyuksahin, Senior Oil Market Analyst, International Energy Agency.
On the occasion of the international workshop on “Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price”, leading world experts were interviwed on the financial speculation in the oil market and its effects on the price of oil. We here report the interview held with Leo P. Drollas, Director and Chief Economist, Centre for Global Energy Studies.
IEW N. 2013.01
Water and Sewerage Industries
European Monetary Union
EU Energy Policy
Foreign Direct Investment